from
Asia Times Online: After three years of inconclusive bilateral negotiations with China and a
year of
precarious diplomatic brinkmanship under Cambodia's
chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),
the
Philippines has sought new ways to resolve its territorial disputes in
the South China Sea.
Despite earlier hopes that China's leadership transition would yield a
constructive re-orientation in its territorial posturing, the
Philippines has faced a progressively more assertive People's Liberation
Army Navy (PLAN), which has recently
stepped up its "surveillance" missions in the disputed waters.
From Manila's point of view, it is only a matter of time before Beijing's perceived encroachments escalate into a direct occupation of
disputed features,
including the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal,
which almost sparked a direct military confrontation between the two
sides in mid-2012. Benigno Aquino's administration also now faces a
dramatic escalation in nationalistic sentiments, especially among highly
vocal netizens
.
Local media have kept those sentiments abuzz with live and
sensationalist coverage of territorial disputes with China in the South
China Sea. It was within this atmosphere of heightened popular
nationalism that the followers of the Sultanate of Solo this year
launched a ragtag invasion of remote territory in Malaysia in hope of
rekindling historical claims to Sabah.
A cabinet reshuffle in the United States, meanwhile, has shown little
signs of a major revitalization in Philippine-US military relations,
with multiple crises in the Middle East occupying the attention of new
Secretary of State John Kerry. That perceived inattention has sparked
rumors that Manila is considering its own cabinet reshuffle,
specifically to bring in figures who have stronger connections with
their Chinese counterparts.
The Aquino administration has thus opted for a new strategy, anchored by
a more muscular diplomacy directed at ASEAN and other international
organizations. The aim is to rein in China's perceived assertiveness by
building sufficient international pressure to give Manila leverage to
restart negotiations towards a regional code of conduct, and/or strike a
bilateral agreement with Beijing to ensure an element of sovereignty
over disputed features within the Philippines' 200 nautical mile
exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Under this new strategy, the Aquino administration is no longer beholden
to the illusion of unconditional US strategic commitment. The Barack
Obama administration's "pivot" policy, unveiled at the 2010 ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF) Summit in Hanoi, inspired inflated hopes among
allies such as the Philippines of direct American involvement in the
South China Sea disputes. Three years of efforts led by Philippine
Foreign Secretary Albert Del Rosario to deepen bilateral security
relations have failed to build a sufficient deterrent against China.
